The Situation And Players Are Much Different This Time.
- Vladimir Putin is no different than a bad dog. Now backed into a corner due to his military’s poor performance in Ukraine, Putin, now seventy-years-old, has voiced his saber-rattling threat of using all forces necessary to claim Ukrainian territories he has decided are now part of Russia. Most international authorities take his threat to include tactical nuclear weapons, the first threat of this kind since the 1962 Cuban Missile Crisis. The use of a tactical nuke would have prolonged effects not only in areas of Ukraine, but the fallout would most likely cross into NATO countries, provoking the NATO alliance to take action. Putin wants to leave his mark with his Russian rulership, and reclaiming territories of Ukraine is a legacy he desires. He must save face as his dictatorship will hopefully come to an end very soon, so how far will he go with the continued threat and use of tactical nuclear weapons? In my opinion, a bad dog in a corner never backs down, and neither will Putin.
The last serious threat with using nuclear weapons was in 1962. After the failed U.S. attempt to overthrow the Castro regime in Cuba with the Bay of Pigs invasion, Soviet premier Nikita Khrushchev reached a secret agreement with Cuban premier Fidel Castro to place Soviet nuclear missiles in Cuba to deter any future invasion attempt. United States’ reconnaissance planes, on never-ending missions over Cuba, discovered that the Soviets were secretly building missile sites that would be capable of launching nuclear weapons – a mere ninety miles from Florida and capable of striking targets along the U.S. eastern seaboard. The thirteen days of both political and military posturing is well documented, with Hollywood providing interesting insight into that tense situation with the well-polished year 2000 flick “Thirteen Days.”
To try and compare the situations sixty years ago with Cuba and the Soviet Union, and currently with Russia, I have listed the options the United States had with the Soviet Union’s Nikita Khrushchev during the Cuban Missile Crisis. I follow these options with a comparative take on what the United States and NATO can and should do with Vladimir Putin and Russia:
- Do nothing: American vulnerability to Soviet missiles was not new. Newly placed missiles in Cuba made little strategic difference in the military balance of power. This is not an option in this day and age. Putin’s threat of using tactical nuclear weapons is not a “do nothing” scenario. The outcome of Russia deploying nuclear weapons in a sovereign nation has both physical and financial ramifications for Europe and the rest of the world.
- Diplomacy: Use diplomatic pressure to get the Soviet Union to remove the missiles. I am certain that the U.S. and their NATO allies are using every back-channel available to open up communication with Putin’s minions. The issue is that Putin is both a narcissist and megalomaniac, and he has no patience or tolerance to participate in diplomacy. As stated earlier, Putin is in the ‘save face’ mode.
- Warning: Send a message to Castro to warn him of the grave danger he, and Cuba, were facing. The United States has sent Putin warnings through diplomatic and military channels. Does Putin care about our warnings? The answer is no.
- Blockade: Use the U.S. Navy to block any missiles from arriving in Cuba. Using U.S. land, sea, or air forces to stop the deployment of Russian nuclear weapons would be an act of war. Could the U.S. provide Ukraine with enough naval assets to take out Russian warships and land-based sites? The answer is yes.
- Air strike: Use the U.S. Air Force to attack all known Cuban missile sites. Is the Ukrainian air force capable of knocking out all land and sea-based nuclear sites? Whether they can or cannot may not matter…they may be forced to do so.
- Invasion: Launch a full force invasion of Cuba and overthrow Castro. This is not an option for obvious reasons. What is an option is for the Russian people, the oligarchs, and the rogue Russian naysayers to take Putin out of office, either literally or politically.
Putin’s threats, along with President Biden’s strange comments last week, are cause for concern. Putin’s bad dog demeanor means that he will never back down and succumb to political or military pressure or diplomacy. The U.S. is taking Putin’s threats seriously, similar to sixty years ago with Khrushchev and Cuba. One bit of evidence of how serious the U.S. is taking the threat: the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services just spent $290 million on a drug to treat radiation sickness. By the way, here is some really spot on advice from the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA): The drug needs to be used within 24 hours of exposure and recommends that people stay indoors for at least 24 hours after a nuclear blast. Thanks FEMA, I do think I will stay indoors for at least 24 hours once I see a massive mushroom cloud. Are you kidding me?
A few short takes for October 9, 2022:
- I hope all of you contributed to the Hurricane Ian / Red Cross fund. We all know how devastated southwest Florida is, and there are many other areas of the state that are still under some level of water.
- I would call Gisele Bündchen, but I now realize I am too high maintenance for her.
- A special birthday for our friend L.M. – well done!
- To the NFL: if you are going to continue to include Thursday night games with your schedule, please ensure the teams are competitive. Last Thursday’s game was a debacle. To Amazon Prime Video: I know the NFL is a monster to negotiate with, but when you pay them $1 billion a year to stream Thursday night games, you should ensure the schedule includes the best of the best.
- The Major League Baseball playoffs and the fall season. Good fun.
- Major League Soccer’s decision-day and the playoffs. Even better fun.
- The concussion rules and protocol in the NFL must be dealt with…quickly.
- The World Cup. The tournament, held every four years, is usually played during the summer, but due to Qatar hosting this time around, the tournament starts in forty-two days, on November 20th. I will be cheering on the U.S.A., Canada, and Mexico, and hopefully they can get out of their tough groups and advance to the round of sixteen.
- Speaking of the World Cup, there have been many issues with labor in the construction of Qatar’s stadiums. I have discussed this in previous posts and hopefully FIFA, the worldwide association governing the sport, will step in and keep other host countries in check. With all that said, Qatar has built some very interesting stadiums. Al Bayt Stadium is unique with its giant tent structure covering the whole stadium that is named after Bayt al sha’ar – tents historically used by nomadic peoples in Qatar and the Gulf region.